[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 12 issued 2354 UT on 14 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 15 09:54:48 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 1439UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A long duration M1 flare
was observed from region 1504(S16E01) along with a CME. The flare
peaked at 1435UT. Several low C-class flares were observed including
a C5 from region 1504 at 1112UT. Solar wind speed varied between
350 and 380 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of
IMF varied between +/-3 nT during most parts of the day. Low
to moderate levels of solar activity may be expected for the
next three days. The effect of the CMEs observed on 13 and 14
June may strengthen the solar wind stream late on 16 June or
early on 17 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 4 22121111
Norfolk Island 1 11010011
Camden 1 11010001
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 11010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 13111011
Mawson 4 22121111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2321 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 5 Quiet
16 Jun 7 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jun 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels today.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at Quiet levels
on 15 and most parts of 16 June. Effect of two CMEs (observed
on 13 and 14 June) may result in rise in geomagnetic activity
levels to unsettled late on 16 June and to unsettled to active
on 17 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 2 days with
some possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions late on 16
June and also on 17 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
17 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 2 days with
the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on mid and high
latitudes on the late 16 June and also on 17 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 60500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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