[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 12 issued 2354 UT on 13 Jun 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 14 09:54:01 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    1328UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 143/97


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jun             15 Jun             16 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A long duration M1 flare 
was observed from region 1504(S17E14) along with a CME. The flare 
peaked at 1317UT. Several low C-class flares were observed including 
a larger C7 flare from region 1507(S25W13) at 1448UT. Solar wind 
speed varied between 370 and 390 km/s during the UT day today. 
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4 nT during most parts 
of the day. Low to moderate levels of solar activity may be expected 
for the next three days. A glancing blow from today's CME may be 
observed on 16 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22220001
      Darwin               4   23220000
      Townsville           6   23221112
      Learmonth            8   23331111
      Norfolk Island       4   22220011
      Camden               3   22220001
      Canberra             3   22210000
      Hobart               2   12110000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   11010000
      Casey                4   22211111
      Mawson              10   14211034

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14   5411 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jun     5    Quiet
15 Jun     5    Quiet
16 Jun     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels today. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at Quiet levels 
on 14 and 15 June. Minor enhancements in activity may be possible 
on 16 June due to an anticipated glancing effect of a CME that 
was observed today.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days with 
some possibility of minor MUF depressions on 16 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jun    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jun    85    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun    85    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly 
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days with 
the possibility of minor MUF depressions on high latitudes on 
the 3rd day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   111000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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