[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 12 issued 2354 UT on 13 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 14 09:54:01 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 1328UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A long duration M1 flare
was observed from region 1504(S17E14) along with a CME. The flare
peaked at 1317UT. Several low C-class flares were observed including
a larger C7 flare from region 1507(S25W13) at 1448UT. Solar wind
speed varied between 370 and 390 km/s during the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4 nT during most parts
of the day. Low to moderate levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next three days. A glancing blow from today's CME may be
observed on 16 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 22220001
Darwin 4 23220000
Townsville 6 23221112
Learmonth 8 23331111
Norfolk Island 4 22220011
Camden 3 22220001
Canberra 3 22210000
Hobart 2 12110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 11010000
Casey 4 22211111
Mawson 10 14211034
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 5411 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 5 Quiet
15 Jun 5 Quiet
16 Jun 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels today.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at Quiet levels
on 14 and 15 June. Minor enhancements in activity may be possible
on 16 June due to an anticipated glancing effect of a CME that
was observed today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days with
some possibility of minor MUF depressions on 16 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days with
the possibility of minor MUF depressions on high latitudes on
the 3rd day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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