[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 12 issued 2349 UT on 12 Jun 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 13 09:49:30 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several low C-class 
flares were observed mainly from regions 1507(S27E02), 
1506(N11E38) and 1504(S17E28). All these regions showed 
further growth during the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed 
varied between 380 and 420 km/s during the UT day today. 
The Bz component of IMF went negative up to -10 nT in the 
early hours of the day and then stayed mostly between -5 and 
+5 nT during the rest of the day. Low to moderate levels of 
solar activity may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with 
isolated Active periods on high latitudes.

Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   32111111
      Darwin               4   23111011
      Townsville           8   32222222
      Learmonth            8   33222211
      Norfolk Island       4   32111110
      Camden               5   32211110
      Canberra             2   22100100
      Hobart               4   32111100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    10   53221000
      Casey                7   33211112
      Mawson              20   64322123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16   2232 2345     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun     7    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jun     5    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet to 
Unsettled levels today with isolated Active periods on 
some high latitude locations. Geomagnetic activity is 
expected to stay mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 
13 June and then gradually decline to Quiet levels on 
14 and 15 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and 
MUF depressions were observed on most locations today. 
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 
3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jun    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun    85    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun    90    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed on most 
locations today. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 407 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    44100 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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