[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 12 issued 2354 UT on 15 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 16 09:54:55 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several low C-class flares
were observed from region 1504(S16W12), the largest being a C3.4
flare that peaked at 1324UT. Solar wind speed varied between 320
and 350 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF varied
between +/-4 nT during most parts of the day. Low to moderate levels
of solar activity may be expected for the next three days. The effect
of the CMEs observed on 13 and 14 June may strengthen the solar
wind stream late on 16 June or early on 17 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Darwin 1 10001001
Townsville 4 12111112
Learmonth 4 22121101
Norfolk Island 1 11000010
Camden 0 01000000
Canberra 0 0000000-
Hobart 0 00000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 1211000-
Mawson 0 00000002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1112 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 7 Quiet
17 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels today.
Effect of two CMEs (observed on 13 and 14 June) may result in
rise in geomagnetic activity levels to unsettled levels late
on 16 June and to unsettled to active levels on 17 June with
some possibility of isolated minor storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
today, mainly on low and mid latitudes. The reason for these
depressions is not clear at the time of this report. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected on 16 June with the
possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions towards the end
of this day and then also on 17 June due to expected rise in
geomagnetic activity levels around this period. Mostly normal
HF conditions may be expected on 18 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
17 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
18 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
today, mainly on low and mid latitudes. The reason for these
depressions is not clear at the time of this report. Mostly normal
HF conditions may be expected on 16 June with the possibility
of minor to mild MUF depressions towards the end of this day
and then also on 17 June due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels around this period. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected on 18 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 64500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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