[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 12 issued 2353 UT on 06 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 7 09:53:53 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 2007UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: The numerous active regions on the disc, are relatively
magnetically simple and small (less than 200 millionths of disc)
and have only a small chance of M or X class flares. However,
AR1494 (17 South,6 West, class Cso, stable size near 160 millionths)
emitted an M2.2 flare that peaked at 2006UT with associated type
IV and II radio bursts, characteristic of a coronal mass ejection
(CME). A CME was observed by 2112UT in the SOHO LASCO C2 spacecraft
and 2139UT in the STEREO-B spacecraft imagery and it appears
to be directed south of the ecliptic by ~45 degrees, indicating
only grazing impact on Earth. Time of arrival estimates are pending
downlink of more spacecraft data and modelling. Solar wind remained
high for most of the UT day from the large coronal hole (CH520)
passage and fluctuated 700-750km/sec, although it has declined
to ~650km/sec from 22UT. IMF Bz fluctuated within +/-5nT of zero
and there were no sustained periods of merging with the geomagnetic
field. A weak sudden impulse at 1150UT was probably the grazing
arrival of one of the 4th June CMEs. Energetic ions are rising
at the L1 point (ACE spacecraft ~23UT), possibly indicating the
pending grazing arrival of the CME emitted ~00UT 5th June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A K
Australian Region 12 33233232
Darwin 12 33233331
Townsville 12 33233232
Learmonth 17 33244342
Norfolk Island 10 33132231
Camden 10 32133232
Hobart 13 33243232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jun :
Macquarie Island 25 33265332
Casey 47 33333583
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 70 (Active)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 50 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21 3432 4354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
08 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: In the IPS magnetometer data for 06 Jun, a weak (18nT)
impulse was observed at 1150UT, probably the result of a grazing
impact by a CME emitted 4th June. Solar wind remained high for
most of the UT day from the large coronal hole (CH520) passage
and fluctuated 700-750km/sec, although it has declined to ~650km/sec
from 22UT. IMF Bz fluctuated within +/-5nT of zero and there
were no sustained periods of merging with the geomagnetic field.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Poor-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
08 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF frequencies are mostly in the Normal range at mid
and low latitudes, albeit with large fluctuations. Strong overnight
spread-F at low-latitudes as the 3rd day of geomagnetic activity
from the coronal-hole high-speed solar-wind stream takes effect
on the inner magnetosphere, connected to the low latitude ionosphere.
More disturbed at high latitudes due to geomagnetic activity
from high speed solar wind stream. Mostly normal conditions are
expected for mid latitudes on 7 June with continued disturbed
for low and high latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jun 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF frequency conditions were averaging near Normal for
mid-latitudes with less fluctuations than the previous two days
as the ongoing geomagnetic activity from a high-speed solar wind
stream from large coronal hole (CH520), began to wane. Strong
overnight spread-F at low-latitudes as the 3rd day of geomagnetic
activity high-speed solar-wind stream takes effect on the inner
magnetosphere, connected to the low latitude ionosphere. Wind
speed had declined to ~650km/s by 22UT and will decline further
on 7 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 672 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 284000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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