[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 12 issued 2347 UT on 05 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 6 09:48:00 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Despite there being 11 numbered active regions on the
disc, all are relatively magnetically simple and small (less
than 200 millionths of disc) and have only a small chance of
M or X class flares. Solar wind remained high from the large
coronal hole (CH520) passage during the UT day and fluctuated
650-750km/sec. IMF Bz fluctuated within +/-5nT of zero and there
were no sustained periods of merging with the geomagnetic field.
Venus has commenced transit of the northern solar disc and will
appear to pass above AR1493 and cut across CH520.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 15 24324323
Darwin 15 24324323
Townsville 15 24324323
Learmonth 16 23324334
Norfolk Island 12 24323223
Camden 12 24323223
Hobart 16 24324324
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
Macquarie Island 29 24546423
Casey 15 33333333
Mawson 69 26554468
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 55 (Unsettled)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 41 (Unsettled)
Alice Springs 9 (Quiet)
Gnangara 140 (Severe storm)
Hobart 167 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18 3425 4233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 16 Unsettled to Active
07 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
08 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Conditions were generally Quiet to Unsettled at mid-latitudes
with short (3 hour) Active to Minor Storm periods observed at
some locations during the middle of the UT day. This is the result
of the large coronal hole (CH520) and associated high speed solar
wind stream. The solar wind has been strong and fluctuating 650-750km/s
for the UT day. Conditions should remain Unsettled with isolated
Active periods for 6 June and a small chance of short Minor Storm
periods until CH520 rotates out of geoeffective longitudes 7
June. High latitudes will be more disturbed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF frequencies are mostly in the Normal range at mid
and low latitudes, albeit with large fluctuations. More disturbed
at high latitudes due to geomagnetic activity from high speed
solar wind stream. Mostly normal conditions are expected for
mid and low latitudes on 6 June with continued disturbed for
mid-high latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF frequency conditions were averaging near Normal but
with 15-30% fluctuations around that, depending on latitude.
This variability was caused by the ongoing geomagnetic activity
from a high-speed solar wind stream from a large coronal hole
(CH520), expected to continue until 7 June UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 266000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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