[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 12 issued 2337 UT on 04 Jun 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 5 09:37:58 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: There are 10 active regions on the disc but all are 
relatively simple and small and have only a small chance of M 
or X class flares. Solar wind remained elevated at 600 km/sec 
from a coronal hole during the UT day and is showing signs of 
rising towards 700km/sec. IMF Bz fluctuated within +/-5nT of 
zero and was not very effective at merging with the geomagnetic 
field.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Unsettled to Active

Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   12243323
      Darwin              11   22233323
      Townsville          13   22343323
      Learmonth           13   22343323
      Norfolk Island      10   12243222
      Camden              12   12243323
      Hobart              16   12254323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    39   12376434
      Casey               15   33333423
      Mawson              44   15443367

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           7   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             26   3332 5652     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun    18    Unsettled to Active
06 Jun    13    Unsettled to Active
07 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Conditions were generally Unsettled at mid-latitudes 
with short (3 hour) Active to Minor Storm periods observed at 
some locations during the middle of the UT day. This is the result 
of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and the following coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. The solar wind has been elevated 
at 600km/s for most of the UT day and is increasing towards 700 
km/s. Conditions should remain Unsettled with isolated Active 
periods for 5 June with a smaller chance of Minor Storm periods. 
High latitudes will be more disturbed.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal during 4 June at mid 
and low latitudes. More disturbed at high latitudes due to geomagnetic 
activity from high speed solar wind stream. Mostly normal conditions 
are expected for mid and low latitudes on 5 June with continued 
disturbed for mid-high latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jun    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF frequency conditions were averaging near Normal but 
with 20-30% fluctuations around that, depending on latitude. 
This variability was most likely caused by the ongoing geomagnetic 
activity from a high speed solar wind stream, expected to last 
until 6 June UT.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    38900 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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