[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 12 issued 2337 UT on 04 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 5 09:37:58 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: There are 10 active regions on the disc but all are
relatively simple and small and have only a small chance of M
or X class flares. Solar wind remained elevated at 600 km/sec
from a coronal hole during the UT day and is showing signs of
rising towards 700km/sec. IMF Bz fluctuated within +/-5nT of
zero and was not very effective at merging with the geomagnetic
field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 12 12243323
Darwin 11 22233323
Townsville 13 22343323
Learmonth 13 22343323
Norfolk Island 10 12243222
Camden 12 12243323
Hobart 16 12254323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
Macquarie Island 39 12376434
Casey 15 33333423
Mawson 44 15443367
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 26 3332 5652
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 18 Unsettled to Active
06 Jun 13 Unsettled to Active
07 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Conditions were generally Unsettled at mid-latitudes
with short (3 hour) Active to Minor Storm periods observed at
some locations during the middle of the UT day. This is the result
of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and the following coronal
hole high speed wind stream. The solar wind has been elevated
at 600km/s for most of the UT day and is increasing towards 700
km/s. Conditions should remain Unsettled with isolated Active
periods for 5 June with a smaller chance of Minor Storm periods.
High latitudes will be more disturbed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal during 4 June at mid
and low latitudes. More disturbed at high latitudes due to geomagnetic
activity from high speed solar wind stream. Mostly normal conditions
are expected for mid and low latitudes on 5 June with continued
disturbed for mid-high latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF frequency conditions were averaging near Normal but
with 20-30% fluctuations around that, depending on latitude.
This variability was most likely caused by the ongoing geomagnetic
activity from a high speed solar wind stream, expected to last
until 6 June UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 38900 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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