[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 12 issued 2352 UT on 03 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 4 09:52:09 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.3 1755UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: An M3-flare was observed from solar region 1496 at 1755UT
on 3 June. A CME was observed in association with this flare
and another was observed in association with a disappearing filament.
Analysis of SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery suggests these
CMEs are primarily directed towards the NE and SE respectively
and are not expected to be strongly geoeffective. All visible
solar regions are relatively simple. ACE solar wind parameters
suggest the Earth has been impacted by a CIR associated with
a coronal hole wind stream resulting in mildly southward IMF
Bz during 3 June. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase
during 4 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 12 22224431
Darwin 11 22223432
Townsville 16 23224532
Learmonth 15 22224531
Norfolk Island 9 22123421
Camden 16 22225520
Canberra 9 11124420
Hobart 14 12225431
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
Macquarie Island 31 10246651
Casey 9 22213331
Mawson 24 42343552
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1111 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 12 Unsettled with the chance of isolated Active
levels and minor periods at high latitudes.
05 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated Active to minor storm periods were observed
at some locations during 3 June as the result of a CIR/coronal
hole. Isolated Active periods are possible for 4 June with the
small chance of Minor storm periods particularly at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal during 3 June. Mostly
normal conditions are expected for 4 June with isolated mild
depressions at times for mid-high latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
05 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
06 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal during 3 June with
isolated mild depressions observed at some regions. Mostly Normal
conditions are expected for 4 June with isolated mild depressions
possible at times for southern regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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