[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 12 issued 2354 UT on 02 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 3 09:54:07 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2350UT/02 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: A CME associated with the C3-flare observed late in
the UT day of 1 June is not expected to be geoeffective. All
visible solar regions are relatively simple. Solar wind parameters
suggest the Earth was under the influence of a solar sector boundary
crossing during 2 June. The IMF NS component was weakly negative
during the most of the latter half of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 11111222
Darwin 6 22120322
Townsville 7 12222223
Learmonth 10 22131333
Norfolk Island 4 11011222
Camden 4 11111222
Canberra 1 00000112
Hobart 4 11111122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 00002021
Casey 5 12111123
Mawson 17 11111346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1212 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active periods
04 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
05 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled and isolated Active periods are expected at
times over the next couple of days as the Earth comes under the
influence of an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream. Storm
levels may be observed at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal during 2 June. Mostly
normal conditions are expected for 3 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly Normal during 2 June with
isolated mild depressions observed at northern regions. Mostly
Normal conditions are expected for 3 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 18400 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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