[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 12 issued 2354 UT on 07 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 8 09:54:50 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Most of the active regions on the disc, are relatively
magnetically simple and small (less than 200 millionths of disc)
with small chance of M or X class flares. The exceptions are
AR1497 which has grown to 230 millionths, and AR1493 and 1494
which are slightly more complex. The largest flare in the last
24 hours was C9.1 at 1544UT from AR1499 (15N, 09W, Bxi, Beta-Gamma)
at the trailing edge of the cluster of 5 active regions. The
CME emitted 5 June is predicted by the ENLIL model (at NOAA/SWPC)
to arrive June 8 0800UT but only have a weak effect as Earth
is clipped by the south-west edge. The CME from AR1494 on 6 June
is predicted to arrive 10 June at 00UT and also be a relatively
weak glancing blow from the north-east edge. Solar wind remained
high for most of the UT day from the large coronal hole (CH520)
passage and declined from 660 to 580km/sec with a short impulse
to 680km/sec at 19UT, associated with a density rise. IMF Bz
fluctuated within +/-5nT of zero and there were no sustained
periods of merging with the geomagnetic field. Wind speed will
further decline over 8 June as coronal hole CH520 rotates past
geoeffective longitude.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22121221
Darwin 7 32221222
Townsville 7 22222222
Norfolk Island 4 22120121
Camden 5 22121121
Hobart 5 22130211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 22130121
Casey 10 33321232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 58 (Unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 63 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 17 4423 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jun 6 Quiet
10 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The CME emitted 5 June is predicted by the ENLIL model
(at NOAA/SWPC) to arrive June 8 0800UT but only have a weak effect
as Earth is clipped by the south-west edge. The CME from AR1494
on 6 June is predicted to arrive 10 June at 00UT and also be
a relatively weak glancing blow from the north-east edge. Solar
wind remained high for most of the UT day from the large coronal
hole (CH520) passage and declined from 660 to 580km/sec with
a short impulse to 680km/sec at 19UT, associated with a density
rise. IMF Bz fluctuated within +/-5nT of zero and there were
no sustained periods of merging with the geomagnetic field. Wind
speed will further decline over 8 June as coronal hole CH520
rotates past geoeffective longitude.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF frequencies are mostly in the Normal range at mid
and low latitudes during the day but depressed at night. Strong
overnight spread-F at low and mid latitudes as the 4th day of
geomagnetic activity from the coronal-hole high-speed solar-wind
stream, which is now declining.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF frequency conditions were averaging near Normal for
mid and low latitudes during the day but still depressed during
the night even though the ongoing geomagnetic activity from a
high-speed solar wind stream from large coronal hole (CH520),
began to wane. Strong overnight spread-F at low-latitudes as
the 4th day of geomagnetic activity high-speed solar-wind stream
takes effect on the inner magnetosphere. Wind speed had declined
to ~580km/s and will decline further on 8 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 699 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 221000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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