[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 12 issued 2354 UT on 15 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 16 09:54:48 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 120/72
COMMENT: Only minor C-class flare activity observed over the
past 24 hours. Active region 1519 (S16W68) produced three C-class
flares late in the UT day. Solar wind parameters remain elevated
due to the CME impact yesterday from the X class flare observed
Jul 12. Solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day from
700 to 500 km/s. Around 06 UT the solar wind magnetic and particle
fluxes changed abruptly. Proton fluxes declined sharply, while
the magnetic field Bz component entered a sustained strong negative
excursion approaching -20nT. At the time of report issue solar
wind Bz remains in this sustained negative excursion, resulting
in strong coupling to the geomagnetic field. The elevated solar
wind parameters are expected to decline over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Active to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 34 44554445
Darwin 31 44453535
Townsville 37 44554455
Learmonth 48 55555555
Norfolk Island 26 33553344
Camden 38 44564445
Canberra - --------
Hobart 45 44664455
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
Macquarie Island 104 36785---
Casey 22 44433---
Mawson 27 4453335-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 70 (Active)
Townsville 68 (Active)
Learmonth 89 (Minor storm)
Alice Springs 75 (Active)
Gnangara NA
Canberra NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 49
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 18 1110 1265
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Jul 7 Quiet
18 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Unsettled to Active early
in the UT day due to ongoing CME effects resultant from the Jul
12 X-class solar flare. At around 06UT, the solar wind Bz component
made a strong negative excursion, which it has maintained for
the remainder of the UT day. This combined with elevated solar
wind speed has resulted in strong coupling between solar wind
and geomagnetic fields resulting in minor to major magnetic storm
periods at all latitudes. Expect continuing geomagnetic storm
periods day one. Solar wind parameters should gradually decline
during days one and two, becoming generally Quiet by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions at low to mid latitudes
due to disturbed solar wind parameters. Poor ionospheric support
at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-30% during local day.
Depressed 15% 14-19UT.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night with periods
of spread-F conditions.
Northern Australian Region:
Variable depressions to 15% during local day.
Variable enhancements to 60% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionospheric support with occasional MUF
enhancements.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-20%.
17 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-20%.
18 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-20%.
COMMENT: Variable propagation conditions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions with moderate day-time depressions and occasionally
strong night-time enhancements. Continuing poor ionospheric support
Antarctic region. Proton event ended early in the UT day and
no significant absorption observed. Chance of isolated short-wave
fadeout events. Possible ongoing disturbance day one due to CME
effects from the X-class flare observed late on Jul 12. As geomagnetic
disturbances decline, expect a return to lower EUV solar radiation
leading to below average MUF's.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 64500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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