[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 12 issued 2349 UT on 16 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 17 09:49:23 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 120/72 105/54
COMMENT: Numerous C-class flares observed over the period with
the largest being a C7.5 level event from region 1520(S16W58)at
2003UT. This region has weakened but remains beta-gamma-delta
class and maintains potential for M- to X-class activity. The
wind speed steadily declined to 450 Km/s. The north-south IMF
component was mainly Southward around -15 nT until ~14UT. Thereafter,
activity decreased with some brief Northward excursions to +5
nT until 15UT. After this time Bz showed moderate negative bias
of -5nT until the time of report issue. The solar wind is expected
to continue settling over the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 22 33545322
Darwin 21 43445322
Townsville 22 33445333
Learmonth 28 34555333
Norfolk Island 17 33435222
Camden 22 33545322
Canberra 28 335453--
Hobart 29 33655322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
Macquarie Island 56 3575653-
Casey 12 3333322-
Mawson 67 6763546-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 39
Planetary 86 4677 5685
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 10 Unsettled
18 Jul 7 Quiet
19 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Unsettled to Minor storm
at low to mid latitudes during the first half of the UT day due
to sustained negative IMF Bz. Conditions declined to Quiet to
Unsettled later in the day. At high latitudes, minor to major
storm periods were observed, mainly during the first half of
the UT day. Expect Unsettled conditions day one with the chance
of isolated Active periods. Conditions should decline to mostly
Quiet day two of the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
18 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
19 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be expected next
24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionospheric support over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 40 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
18 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-20%.
19 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over most of the Australian
region during the last 24 hours. Sporadic-E and Spread F conditions
were observed at times during 16 July which may have degraded
HF conditions. Continuing poor ionospheric support Antarctic
region. Possible ongoing disturbance day one with a small chance
of minor SWFs. Sporadic-E and Spread F conditions are possible
at times over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 567 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 51400 K Bz: -16 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list