[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 12 issued 2349 UT on 16 Jul 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 17 09:49:23 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             120/72             105/54

COMMENT: Numerous C-class flares observed over the period with 
the largest being a C7.5 level event from region 1520(S16W58)at 
2003UT. This region has weakened but remains beta-gamma-delta 
class and maintains potential for M- to X-class activity. The 
wind speed steadily declined to 450 Km/s. The north-south IMF 
component was mainly Southward around -15 nT until ~14UT. Thereafter, 
activity decreased with some brief Northward excursions to +5 
nT until 15UT. After this time Bz showed moderate negative bias 
of -5nT until the time of report issue. The solar wind is expected 
to continue settling over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      22   33545322
      Darwin              21   43445322
      Townsville          22   33445333
      Learmonth           28   34555333
      Norfolk Island      17   33435222
      Camden              22   33545322
      Canberra            28   335453--
      Hobart              29   33655322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    56   3575653-
      Casey               12   3333322-
      Mawson              67   6763546-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             32                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        39
           Planetary             86   4677 5685     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul    10    Unsettled
18 Jul     7    Quiet
19 Jul     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Unsettled to Minor storm 
at low to mid latitudes during the first half of the UT day due 
to sustained negative IMF Bz. Conditions declined to Quiet to 
Unsettled later in the day. At high latitudes, minor to major 
storm periods were observed, mainly during the first half of 
the UT day. Expect Unsettled conditions day one with the chance 
of isolated Active periods. Conditions should decline to mostly 
Quiet day two of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
18 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor
19 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be expected next 
24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jul    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.     
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionospheric support over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul    40    20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
18 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-20%.
19 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over most of the Australian 
region during the last 24 hours. Sporadic-E and Spread F conditions 
were observed at times during 16 July which may have degraded 
HF conditions. Continuing poor ionospheric support Antarctic 
region. Possible ongoing disturbance day one with a small chance 
of minor SWFs. Sporadic-E and Spread F conditions are possible 
at times over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 567 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    51400 K  Bz: -16 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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