[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 12 issued 2352 UT on 14 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 15 09:52:21 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0459UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 130/84 120/72
COMMENT: A long-duration C5 level flare was observed after 03UT,
with a super-imposed M1 level flare at 0458UT which was attributed
to active region 1521 (S21W46). Active region 1520 (S16W35) produced
some minor C-class flares during the period. A narrow NE-directed
CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 00UT, and a N-directed
CME after 1730UT. Neither CME appears Earth-directed. ACE EPAM
data indicated an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 14/1335UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity. A
solar wind shock passage was observed at the ACE satellite platform
at 1728UT. Solar wind speed increased sharply from 350 km/s to
around 600 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF had been near-neutral
prior to shock arrival, then maintained moderate (-10nT) southward
bias for a few hours, then showed moderate (+/- 10nT) fluctuations
for the remainder of the UT day. Solar wind parameters are expected
to be disturbed on Jul 15, then gradually decline to nominal
levels. Active regions 1520 and 1521 maintain potential for M-
to X-class flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 12111344
Darwin 13 12111354
Townsville 17 33323344
Learmonth 14 22111354
Norfolk Island 7 12001234
Camden 9 12101244
Canberra - --------
Hobart 7 02001243
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
Macquarie Island 7 00001343
Casey 42 13322484
Mawson 43 32223377
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1101 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Jul 7 Quiet
17 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 13 July and
is current for 14-15 Jul. The regional geomagnetic field was
Quiet from 00 to 18UT. The anticipated CME shock arrival from
the X-level flare of Jul 12 arrived at the Earth shortly after
18UT. Geomagnetic activity from 18 to 24 UT was Unsettled to
Active at low to mid latitudes with Active to Major Storm periods
observed at high latitudes. Expect Unsettled conditions day one
with the chance of isolated Minor to Major Storm periods. Conditions
should decline gradually day two becoming Quiet day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Poor ionospheric support at high latitudes. Minor absorption
observed due to elevated proton fluxes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Variable enhancements/depressions during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Sporadic-E 18-20UT at Brisbane.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionospheric support over the UT day.
Minor absorption observed after 17UT due to
elevated proton fluxes.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-30%.
16 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-30%.
17 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-20%.
COMMENT: Variable propagation conditions observed Equatorial/Aus
regions with moderate night-time MUF depressions following onset
of an anticipated solar wind shock event. Continuing poor ionospheric
support Antarctic region with mild absorption observed due to
shock-related proton deposition. Chance of isolated short-wave
fadeout events. Possible ongoing disturbance days one and two
due to CME impact from the X-class flare observed late on Jul
12.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 29900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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