[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 12 issued 2328 UT on 05 Jul 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 6 09:28:13 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.6 04/2209UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American
  M1.2 04/2355UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.1    0038UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.4    0110UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    0131UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.2    0242UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.0    0332UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M4.7    0336UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    0659UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.3    0745UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.8    1048UT  possible   lower  European
  M6.2    1144UT  probable   lower  European
  M1.2    1321UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.6    2014UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American
  M1.5    2142UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 165/119

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jul             07 Jul             08 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            160/114

COMMENT: Numerous M-class flares with the main contributor being 
region 1515 (S17 W37) with 1519 (S14 E62) also producing one 
low level M flare. Region 1515 remains an Fkc group and has shown 
further growth while other regions seem stable. CMEs were associated 
with some of the region 1515 flares but available images indicate 
all were directed southwards. ACE data show the solar wind speed 
declining from 530 to ~460 km/s. The north-south IMF component 
was mainly northward on 5 Jul ranging between +5/-4 nT until 
~11 UT. Thereafter, activity increased with some brief excursions 
to -8 nT but mostly north to +10 nT. The CMEs reported yesterday 
as expected to be geo-effective, are now considered likely to 
impact late on 7 or early 8 Jul. Before this, the solar wind 
may be mildly disturbed at times due to effects from the recent 
CME activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
with active periods 09-15 UT.

Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22133322
      Darwin              11   22234322
      Townsville          19   33344433
      Learmonth           13   22244322
      Norfolk Island       8   12133222
      Camden               8   22133212
      Canberra             7   31033211
      Hobart               7   -2133211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   111110--
      Casey               10   3323311-
      Mawson              12   4323321-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary              9   3323 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled
07 Jul    15    Quiet to unsettled. Active to minor storm periods 
                possible late.
08 Jul    25    Unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm periods 
                likely.

COMMENT: Activity possibly beginning late 7 Jul due to CME impact.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Jul    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 15-30%
      depressions 00, 12-20, 22-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 15-25%
      depressions 00-06, 13-15 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 15-30%
      depressions 05-06, 11-18 UT at Darwin. Depressions
      of 15-20%, 00, 03-07, 12-16 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      20%, mostly 01-09, 14-17 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 20% possible at all
latitudes. IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on
5 July and is current for 6-8 Jul (SWFs). 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 524 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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