[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 12 issued 2329 UT on 04 Jul 2012

Thu Jul 5 09:29:26 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.3    0437UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M5.3    0955UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M2.3    1225UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.3    1440UT  possible   lower  South American/Atlantic
  M1.8    1640UT  possible   lower  South American/Atlantic
  M4.6    2209UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 163/117

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jul             06 Jul             07 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            160/114

COMMENT: Numerous flares, mostly from region 1515 (S17 W23) with 
1513 (N15 W37) contributing the M1.8 at 1639 UT. Region 1515 
has grown and increased in complexity (Fkc class) while 1513 
remains stable. New regions 1518 (N11 E64) and 1519 (S14 E75) 
are simple groups. Two CMEs, expected to be geo-effective, were 
observed in STEREO images, one late on 3 Jul from region 1515 
and the other at ~1724 UT, related to region 1513. ACE data show 
the solar wind declining from about 600-480 km/s with the north-south 
IMF component ranging between +/-5 nT. The solar wind is likely 
to become disturbed late on 6 Jul or 7 Jul due to CME activity. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1504 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 5 Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23222011
      Darwin               7   23222122
      Townsville           7   23222112
      Learmonth            8   33223011
      Norfolk Island       5   23222010
      Camden               5   23222001
      Canberra             2   12112000
      Hobart               5   23123000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     7   22134000
      Casey               10   34322211
      Mawson              23   36444112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   3312 2423     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled
06 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled
07 Jul    15    Unsettled to active

COMMENT: Conditions are likely to become disturbed either late 
6 Jul or 7 Jul due to recent CMEs. Isolated minor storm levels 
possible at higher latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Jul    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced
      01-13, 20 UT. Depressed 15-30% 00, 14-19, 21-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly 15-25% depressed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
      25% 06-07, 11, 15-18 UT at Darwin, and 01-07 UT at
      Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Night time
      depressions to 25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 30%.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 2 July 
and is current for 3-5 Jul (SWFs). Occasional depressions to 
20% possible at all latitudes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 555 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   115000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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