[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 12 issued 2329 UT on 06 Jul 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 7 09:29:29 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.9 0140UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0252UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.5 0824UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.8 1029UT possible lower European
M1.2 1330UT possible lower European
M1.3 1856UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
X1.1 2308UT probable all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: The six, low level M-class flares were all from region
1515 (S18 W50), the origin of the X flare is unknown at this
time. Region 1515 is still growing in size. Available STEREO
images indicate possible impact from a CME observed ~1254 UT;
further images and analysis are required. ACE data show the north-south
IMF ranging between -10 and +9 nT, with wind speed 400-500 km/s.
The solar wind is expected to become disturbed 7 Jul due to the
effects of the CMEs on 3 and 4 Jul mentioned in the 4 Jul report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 10 22222243
Darwin 11 23222333
Townsville 16 33333343
Learmonth 10 22222243
Norfolk Island 8 22122233
Camden 11 23122243
Canberra 6 12112232
Hobart 9 12112243
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
Macquarie Island 10 0201424-
Casey 15 3322225-
Mawson 38 5532227-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 2213 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 18 Quiet to active
08 Jul 25 Unsettled to active
09 Jul 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 5 July and
is current for 6-8 Jul. Activity is likely to increase 7 Jul
due to CMEs effects. Isolated minor storm levels possible on
7 and 8 Jul. Activity should begin subsiding 9 Jul but active
levels still possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 20-30%
00, 13-20, 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 15-25%
01-02, 13-14 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 25-35% depressions
10, 13-15, 17-19 UT at Darwin and 20-25% depressions
08-09, 14 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Occasional depressions to 20% possible at all
latitudes. IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on
5 July and is current for 6-8 Jul (SWFs).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 28000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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