[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 12 issued 2352 UT on 28 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 29 10:52:51 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Further analysis of more recent SOHO and STEREO satellite
imagery suggests that CME activity observed in association with
the X1-flare of 27 January is primarily directed towards the
west but may have a very glancing impact at Earth late on 30
January into 31 January. Only minor enhancements in solar wind
velocity and density are expected with this CME. Solar wind parameters
suggest the Earth is still under the influence of a high speed
coronal hole solar wind stream which is slowly abating. The high
energy proton flux (10 MeV) remained above event level thresholds
during 28 January and is expected to remain above event levels
for 29 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22212112
Darwin 6 22212122
Townsville 8 23222123
Learmonth 6 22222122
Norfolk Island 4 22211012
Camden 4 12212012
Canberra 4 12212012
Hobart 5 22212112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 11112012
Casey 19 35532123
Mawson 24 34212256
Davis 16 24432333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1232 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 6 Quiet
30 Jan 12 Quiet with the chance of Active to Minor storm
levels late in the UT day.
31 Jan 15 Mostly Unsettled with the chance of Active and
isolated Minor storm periods.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet for the Australian
region with some isolated Active and Storm periods observed at
some Antarctic stations. An mild increase in geomagnetic activity
is possible late in the UT day of 30 January and into 31 January
with the glancing impact of a CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal-fair Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : Began at 0545UT 23/01, Ended at 1100UT 27/01
and, 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 01 2012 0615UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly near normal with some slightly
degraded conditions at times at some locations. HF conditions
are expected to be mostly near normal for the next few days with
slightly degraded conditions at times for 31 January with anticipated
mild increases in geomagnetic activity. High latitude regions
are significantly degraded due to a PCA event that is expected
to continue for at least the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values at some stations,
otherwise a Proton event is causing increased absorption.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
some depressions up to 15% at times at some locations. MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next
few days with isolated depressions up to 15% possible at times
for 31 January with anticipated mild increases in geomagnetic
activity. Antarctic region MUFs are significantly degraded due
to a PCA event that is expected to continue for at least the
next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 515 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 90200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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