[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 12 issued 2331 UT on 27 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 28 10:31:21 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.8 1837UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: An X1-flare was observed at 1837UT from solar region
1402 on the west limb. This flare was associated with Type II
and IV radio sweeps, an increase in high energy proton flux,
and a CME. Analysis of SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery suggests
that CME activity observed in association with this flare is
primarily directed towards the west and is not expected to be
geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be at mostly Low
levels for the next few days. There is the small chance of M-class
flares during 28 January as solar region 1402 rotates around
the limb. Solar wind parameters suggest the Earth is presently
under the influence of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream.
The high energy proton flux briefly return to below event levels
during 27 January before again rising above threshold levels
due to an increase in high energy proton flux associated with
the X1-flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 8 23232221
Learmonth 7 22223211
Norfolk Island 6 22222121
Camden 6 12322211
Canberra 6 12223201
Hobart 8 12333211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 02434210
Casey 32 46634322
Mawson 15 44324221
Davis 16 34433322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2012 2311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan 6 Quiet
30 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet for the Australian
region with some isolated Active and Storm periods observed at
Antarctic stations. Mostly Quiet levels are expected for the
next few days with some isolated Unsettled and Active periods
possible at times due a coronal hole high speed stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : Began at 0545UT 23/01, Ended at 1100UT 27/01
and, 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 01 2012 0615UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
29 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF conditions
are expected to be mostly near normal for the next few days with
slightly degraded periods at times for 28 January. Antarctic
regions returned to mostly normal conditions during 27 January
as the Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) event subsided, however, a
further PCA event is now in progress due to the X1-flare observed
at 1837UT. This PCA event is expected to continue for at least
the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
29 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the
next few days with isolated depressions up to 15% possible at
times for 28 January. Antarctic region MUFs briefly returned
to mostly near predicted monthly values during 27 January as
the Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) event subsided, however, a further
PCA event is now in progress due to the X1-flare observed at
1837UT. This PCA event is expected to continue for at least the
next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 109000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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