[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 12 issued 2348 UT on 29 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 30 10:48:44 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: The CME observed in association with the X1-flare of
27 January is primarily directed towards the west but may have
a very glancing impact at Earth during 30 January. Only minor
enhancements in solar wind velocity and density are expected
with this CME. Solar wind speeds continued to decline as the
influence of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream slowly
abates. The high energy proton flux (10 MeV) remained above event
level thresholds during 29 January and is expected to return
to below event levels during 30 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22120212
Darwin 6 22221212
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 5 22120212
Norfolk Island 3 12110111
Camden 4 22120111
Canberra 3 12110112
Hobart 5 22221211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 23121111
Casey 13 34422222
Mawson 22 33321364
Davis 21 3443----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1110 0022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 12 Mostly Unsettled, with the chance of isolated
Active periods and Minor Storm periods at high
latitudes.
31 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the Australian region
with some isolated Active and Storm periods observed at some
Antarctic stations. A slight increase in geomagnetic activity
is possible during the UT day of 30 January with the anticipated
glancing impact of a CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 01 2012 0615UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal to good. HF conditions
are expected to be mostly normal to good for the next few days
with isolated degraded periods possible at times for 30 January
with the anticipated slight increase in geomagnetic activity.
High latitude regions were significantly degraded due to a PCA
event that is expected to abate during the latter half of the
UT day of 30 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values at some stations,
otherwise a Proton event is causing increased absorption.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
31 Jan 75 Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next few days with isolated depressions up to 15% possible
at times for 30 January with the anticipated slight increase
in geomagnetic activity. Antarctic region MUFs were significantly
degraded due to a PCA event that is expected to abate during
the latter half of the UT day of 30 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 291 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 74700 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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