[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 12 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 25 10:30:53 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the 24th of January with
several small C class flares from regions 1401(N16W53) and 1402(N29W48),
the largest being C2.5. The solar wind monitor onboard the SOHO
spacecraft observed a shock in the solar wind around 14UT. The
ACE spacecraft magnetometer recorded that at the time of the
shock the IMF Bz component went positive to around 20 nT, with
a later excursion to around -20nt for a brief period. This has
settled back to around +/- 5nt at time of writing. The high energy
proton flux remains high and is expected to remain at elevated
levels for the next 1-2 days. Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate for the next 3 days, with some possibility of
further M class activity from region 1402. The solar wind conditions
are expected to be around normal, with some increase in speed
possible on day 3 of this forecast due to a coronal hole high
speed stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 18 33223543
Darwin 17 32223543
Townsville 20 33224543
Learmonth 24 32223653
Norfolk Island 17 32123543
Camden 17 23223543
Canberra 17 23223543
Hobart 16 33223443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
Macquarie Island 25 33232563
Casey 40 45543654
Mawson 36 55323564
Davis 29 44434553
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 45 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 5321 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
26 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 23 January and
is current for 24-26. Jan Conditions were Quiet in the Australian
region until around 1504UT when IPS magnetometer data recorded a weak
(38nT) impulse. In the following hours, Minor Storm conditions were observed
across the continent. Antarctica had been at Minor Storm levels
prior to this time and recorded isolated Major Storm levels afterwards.
This is in response to a shock in the solar wind observed around
14UT due to a CME from the M8 flare observed on the 23rd of January.
Active conditions with possible isolated Minor Storm levels are
expected for the first part of the 25th, reducing to Unsettled
towards the later part of the day and into the 26th. A coronal
hole high speed stream expected around the 27th is expected to
maintain Unsettled conditions into day 3 of the forecast.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 01 2012 1645UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
26 Jan Normal Normal Poor
27 Jan Normal Normal Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF conditions were generally good until around 15UT
when geomagnetic storm effects depressed the MUFs by around 20%.
Depression are expected to continue into the first day of the
forecast, improving somewhat over days 2 and 3.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values until 15UT,
Depressed by 20% afterwards.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during until 15UT,
Near predicted monthly values afterwards.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 50 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jan 60 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 24 January
and is current for 24-26 Jan MUFs were generally around predicted
monthly values until around 15UT when geomagnetic storm effects
depressed the MUFs by around 20%. Depressions are expected to
continue into the first day of the forecast, improving somewhat
over days 2 and 3.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+08
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 290 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 96800 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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