[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 12 issued 2350 UT on 25 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 26 10:50:59 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be at mostly Low levels
for the next few days. There is the small chance of M-class flares
as solar regions 1401 and 1402 rotate off the visible disk. A
CME observed in both SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery around
00UT on 25 January appears westward directed and is not expected
to be geoeffective. ACE satellite data shows excursions of the
IMF magnetic field down to -10nT for a period of a couple of
hours between 07-10UT. Solar wind declined slowly from approximately
650 km/s over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds are expected
to increase during 27-28 January as a coronal hole rotates into
a geoeffective position. The high energy proton flux is expected
to remain above event levels during 26 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 23433212
Darwin 10 33332212
Townsville 14 23443222
Learmonth 14 33343223
Norfolk Island 9 23332112
Camden 12 23433212
Canberra 11 23433112
Hobart 14 33443212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
Macquarie Island 27 34564321
Casey 63 57843323
Mawson 29 44554334
Davis 35 44654353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 24 4222 2564
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan 12 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active
periods
28 Jan 10 Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active
periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet to Unsettled with
an isolated Active period for 06-09UT for the Australian region.
Storm levels were observed at Antarctic stations. The increased
levels of geomagnetic activity are mostly likely the result of
the period of sustained southward IMF observed during 07-10UT
on 25 January. Mostly Quiet levels are expected for 26 January.
A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to increase geomagnetic
activity to isolated Active periods during 27-28 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Poor-normal Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 01 2012 1645UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed 15-30% at times for mid-high
latitude regions, otherwise MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values to depressed 10-20% at times for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15-30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Jan 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed 15-30% at times for central
and southern Aus/NZ regions during local daytime hours, otherwise
MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values to depressed 10-20%
at times for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+08
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 288 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 105000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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