[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 12 issued 2355 UT on 23 Jan 2012
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 24 10:55:24 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0322UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M8.7 0400UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was reached High levels during 23 January.
Solar region 1402 produced an M8.7 flare at 0359UT on 23 January
with associated radio bursts. An increase in proton flux at
geosynchronous
orbit was also observed in association with this flare. Analysis
of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggests that although the
majority of the CME associated with this flare is northward directed,
a substantial component is in the ecliptic plane and earthward
directed. The CME is anticipated to impact Earth during the latter
half of the UT day of 24 January. Significant increases in solar
wind speed are expected with the impact of this CME. Solar activity
is expected to be Low during 24 January with the small possibility
of further M-class flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 43221112
Darwin 9 43222112
Townsville 12 44222222
Learmonth 11 52222112
Norfolk_Island 6 32211112
Camden 11 53221111
Canberra 10 53211101
Hobart 11 53221112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
Macquarie_Island 9 44310001
Casey 14 43432222
Mawson 22 45512134
Davis 18 34523233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 24 1044 5454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 50 Storm Levels
25 Jan 50 Storm Levels
26 Jan 20 Active
COMMENT: Some minor storm periods were observed at the start
of the UT day of 23 January returning to mostly unsettled to
Quiet conditions by the end of the day. Major to Severe storm
periods are expected in the latter half of the UT day of 24 January
and into 25 January due to the anticipated arrival of a CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 23 01 2012 0545UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
25 Jan Poor Poor Poor
26 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
25 Jan 40 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
26 Jan 50 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant depressions were observed during 23 January
as the result of enhanced geomagnetic activity observed during
22-23 January. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal
during the first half of the UT day of 24 January, becoming
significantly
degraded in the latter half of the UT day and into the UT day
of 25 January due to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: 8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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