[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 12 issued 2334 UT on 13 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 14 10:34:12 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: An erupting solar filament was observed across the north
central meridian late in the UT day Jan 13. There was an associated
mostly North-directed CME which is unlikely to be geoeffective.
No significant X-ray activity observed over the UT day. Solar
wind speed peaked early in the UT day at around 550 km/s under
the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. It then declined
steadily for the remainder of the day to around 430 km/s at the
time of report issue. The Bz component of the IMF showed moderate
fluctuations to +/-10nT early in the day then settled to mostly
neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 32321111
Darwin 8 32321212
Townsville 9 23322222
Learmonth 8 32321212
Norfolk Island 5 22310111
Camden 7 32321111
Canberra 5 22320111
Hobart 8 33321111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 22330001
Casey 26 56532122
Mawson 16 44421214
Davis 15 34433222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2001 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 5 Quiet
15 Jan 5 Quiet
16 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters were disturbed for the first few
hours of the UT day following onset of the anticipated coronal
hole wind stream. The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid
latitudes was Quiet to Unsettled 00-09UT, then tending to mostly
Quiet. Conditions at high latitudes were Unsettled to Active
00-09UT, tending later to Quiet to Unsettled. The coronal hole
wind stream appears now to be in decline. Expect mostly Quiet
conditions next three days. Possible brief disturbance day two
or three due to another narrow coronal hole now at central solar
meridian.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Possible disturbed conditions day one at high latitudes
due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Variable minor enhancements/depressions.
Enhanced to 40% local day today.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Isolated periods of moderate disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
15 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
16 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed Equatorial/N Aus
regions. Daytime enhancements extending to S Aus regions. Expect
good HF conditions next three days. Short-term variability possible
Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions due to seasonal sporadic-E. Chance
of minor disturbances Antarctic region day one.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 61600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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