[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 12 issued 2329 UT on 14 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 15 10:29:16 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1318UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: There was a long-duration increase in solar X-ray flux
during the mid part of the UT day, peaking at the M1.4 level
at 1315UT. This was in association with a flare sequence on the
East limb (N14E88) in the area of newly numbered region 1401.
No associated CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery. Active region
1398 (N13W19) grew in size and spot complexity over the report
period. Expect Low solar activity next two to three days with
the chance of further M-class events as active regions on the
East limb rotate onto the visible disk. Solar wind speed declined
steadily from 440 to 360 km/s over the UT day . IMF Bz remained
mostly neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11211011
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 4 12211121
Learmonth 4 21221002
Norfolk Island 2 11200001
Camden 2 11210001
Canberra 2 11210001
Hobart 3 11211011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 00210000
Casey 10 33422012
Mawson 7 23212013
Davis 7 22322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2331 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 5 Quiet
16 Jan 6 Quiet
17 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet with isolated
Unsettled intervals at high latitudes only 03-06UT. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions next three days. Possible brief disturbance
day two or three due to a narrow coronal hole rotating
into geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced to 45% 00-02UT.
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin variable enhancements to 60% 03-05, 12-15UT.
Townsville enhanced 20% 04-05, depressed 20% 08-10UT.
Learmonth enhanced 30% 01-07, depressed 20% 18-21UT.
Brisbane depressed 20% 00-03, 06-10UT
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
16 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
17 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions especially Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Significant MUF enhancements observed at times.
Expect good HF conditions next three days. Short-term variability
possible Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions due to seasonal sporadic-E.
Chance of minor disturbances Antarctic region days two to three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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