[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 12 issued 2333 UT on 12 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 13 10:33:40 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: There was a long-duration increase in solar X-ray flux
level over the mid part of the UT day commencing at about 09UT.
The source is probably a large flare/CME which occurred behind
the east limb. STEREO A imagery shows a mostly N-directed far-side
CME after 09UT. STEREO B imagery shows a semi-halo CME with some
ejecta in the ecliptic plane. The event is unlikely to be geoeffective.
Solar wind parameters were stable until 19UT after which solar
wind speed increased from 400 to 550 km/s and IMF Bz showed moderate
fluctuations to +/-10nT. This probably marks onset of the anticipated
mild coronal hole wind stream, which is expected to persist for
about one day. Loop prominence activity was observed on the NE
limb indicating an approaching active region.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1387 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 13 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 12 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 22221233
Darwin 8 22222232
Townsville 9 22222233
Learmonth 9 22232232
Norfolk Island 5 12111132
Camden 8 22211233
Canberra 7 21211133
Hobart 8 22221133
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 11121022
Casey 14 33432233
Mawson 14 33224224
Davis 13 23333332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1210 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes becoming Unsettled 18-24UT due to onset of the anticipated
coronal hole wind stream. Conditions were mostly Unsettled at
high latitudes. Expect mostly Unsettled conditions day one with
the chance of isolated Active intervals mainly at high latitudes.
Conditions should decline on day two becoming generally Quiet
day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Possible disturbed conditions days one and two at high
latitudes due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jan 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Variable enhancements/depressions over the UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable MUF enhancements/depressions to 40% observed
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Mild variability extending to S Aus
regions. Conditions should be near predicted monthly values equatorial/Aus/NZ
regions with the chance of moderate locally variable enhancements/depressions.
Chance of minor disturbances Antarctic region next two to three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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