[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 12 issued 2328 UT on 11 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 12 10:28:08 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Active region 1393 (N17W82) produced a C3 level flare
at 0446UT. There was no associated radio sweep or CME observed.
Solar wind speed increased slightly during the second half of
the UT day to around 480 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF showed
minor fluctuations about neutral, tending mildly positive during
the second half of the UT day. A small S. hemisphere coronal
hole is expected to rotate into geoeffective position day one
or two.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1387 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 13 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22211212
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 7 23221222
Learmonth 7 22221322
Norfolk Island 4 32110111
Camden 5 13210212
Canberra 4 12210212
Hobart 6 23211212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 22110111
Casey 25 36542322
Mawson 22 54311254
Davis 17 34332225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0102 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jan 6 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes with Unsettled intervals 03-06UT. Conditions were mostly
Unsettled at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions day one.
A small S. hemisphere coronal hole is expected to rotate into
geoeffective position day one or two bringing briefly Unsettled
conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jan 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced 20-30% local day Perth and Learmonth
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20-30%
13 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect normal to enhanced ionospheric conditions Equatorial/Aus/NZ
regions. Chance of minor disturbances Antarctic region next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 72900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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