[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 January 12 issued 2331 UT on 05 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 6 10:31:21 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: A C1.9 flare from region 1390 (N10W71) at 0722 UT and
and C2.1 from growing region 1392 (N21W18) at 1238 UT. The latter
flare was probably associated with a CME at 1209 UT, observed
in STEREO and SDO images. This CME appears to have a weak, Earth
directed component. Regions 1391 (N13E43) and 1392 appear most
likely to flare. ACE data show the solar wind was mostly undisturbed
with the north-south IMF component ranging +5/-7 nT. Solar wind
parameters may be slightly disturbed 6 Jan. Expect disturbed
conditions 7-8 Jan due to coronal hole and CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to unsettled.
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 12123121
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 6 22122222
Norfolk_Island 5 12123110
Camden 6 12123121
Canberra 5 12123120
Hobart 6 12223121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
Macquarie_Island 9 12125110
Casey 15 24532222
Mawson 12 42123233
Davis 12 23233233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 2000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled
07 Jan 12 Unsettled to active
08 Jan 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods 6-8 Jan and minor storm
levels at higher latitudes 7-8 Jan
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30% at
Darwin 17-18 UT. Enhancements at Townsville to 50% 09-19 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
07 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
08 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes,
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications
may be degraded or disrupted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 23300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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