[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 12 issued 2335 UT on 04 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 5 10:35:32 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Two C1 flares over the reporting period from regions
1386 (S17W87) and 1392 (N20W04). ACE data showed solar wind parameters
were undisturbed. Wind parameters are expected to become disturbed
late 5 or 6 Jan due to coronal hole effects. Expect disturbed
conditions to carry over to 7 Jan if the CME from 3 Jan arrives.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11012111
Darwin 5 21122112
Townsville 5 22112122
Learmonth 4 12012112
Norfolk_Island 2 21001021
Camden 2 11002011
Canberra 1 11001011
Hobart 2 11001111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie_Island 0 00000010
Casey 9 34212122
Mawson 6 41111112
Davis 8 33222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3422 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled
06 Jan 10 Quiet to unsettled
07 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods 5 to 7 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 25%
00-04, 15-17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
04-08 UT and depressions to 25% 20-21 UT at Darwin and
enhancements to 45% 02-09 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional enhancements
to 25%.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
06 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
07 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes,
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications
may be degraded or disrupted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 83700 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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