[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 12 issued 2329 UT on 03 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 4 10:29:22 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: A CME was observed in the available STEREO images beginning
around 1055 UT and is likely to impact Earth perhaps as early
as 6 Jan. It may be associated with activity in the north-east
quadrant observed in SDO images. ACE data showed the solar wind
IMF Bz component slightly disturbed early in the reporting period
(+5/-10 nT) and the speed reaching ~470 km/s. Solar wind parameters
are now undisturbed. Wind parameters are expected to become disturbed
late 5 or 6 Jan due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Mostly quiet to
unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 32222211
Darwin 7 32212212
Townsville 8 33222221
Learmonth 8 42222211
Norfolk_Island 5 32111112
Camden 6 32221111
Canberra 5 32121110
Hobart 8 33222211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
Macquarie_Island 10 24233300
Casey 17 45422222
Mawson 24 46333333
Davis 20 34543232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0000 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 6 Quiet
05 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled
06 Jan 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods on 5 and 6 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Occasional enhancements to
30%, 15-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 35% at
Darwin 04-08 and 16-18 UT and at Townsville 03-13 and
16-18 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
mostly 00-14 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions and
enhancements to 30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
05 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
06 Jan 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes,
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications
may be degraded or disrupted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 34600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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