[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 12 issued 2329 UT on 06 Jan 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 7 10:29:20 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JANUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: A C1.4 flare from region 1389 (S23W41) at 0608 UT and
a C2.2 from 1392 (N19W32) at 1125 UT. ACE data show the solar
wind becoming slightly disturbed with the arrival of the coronal
hole wind stream. The north-south IMF component ranging +8/-7
nT and wind speed increasing to 460 km/s. Solar wind parameters
should be slightly disturbed 7 to 8 Jan due to the continued
effects of the coronal hole. However, there may be increased
disturbance during this period due to the 3 Jan CME. By 9 Jan,
wind parameters should be returning to normal.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22221123
Darwin 7 22221223
Townsville 9 22222233
Learmonth 6 22221222
Norfolk_Island 5 21221122
Camden 6 12221123
Canberra 6 12221123
Hobart 6 22221122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie_Island 3 11120112
Casey 29 46543233
Mawson 22 23332364
Davis 20 34443234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1010 3121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 10 Quiet to unsettled
08 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled
09 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods 7-8 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 45%
13-18 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40% at
Darwin 07-12 UT and to 30% at Townsville 06-10 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
08 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
09 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
COMMENT: Seasonal sporadic E observed at times at all latitudes,
expect similar conditions over the forecast period; communications
may be degraded or disrupted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 43900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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