[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 12 issued 2330 UT on 27 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 28 10:30:39 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 29 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: After the mild shock in the solar wind at 26/2056 UT,
the ACE Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-10 nT with
a sustained southward period 1300-1830 UT. Solar wind speed increased
over the reporting period to ~510 km/s. Two CMEs were observed
in LASCO C2 and STEREO images. An eastward CME observed ~0920
UT may have an Earth-directed component. Solar wind parameters
should begin to settle over 28 Feb. Region 1426 (N11E01) is considered
the most likely region to flare.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
until 12 UT. Active to minor storm levels 12-21 UT, then settling to
quiet conditions.
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 18 32224452
Darwin 15 32224442
Townsville 15 32224442
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk_Island 12 32123342
Camden 18 32224452
Canberra 16 22124452
Hobart 20 32224552
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
Macquarie_Island 35 32125753
Casey 24 44434352
Mawson 53 44324862
Davis 21 44333352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 74 (Active)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2222 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Field reached major storm levels at southern high latitudes.
Isolated active levels possible 28 and 29 Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
11-14, 18 and 22-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
08-14, 17 and 21-22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
25% 19-23 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions at
some stations to 20% 20-23 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionosphere due to polar cap absorption (proton
enhancement). Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
29 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 27 February
and is current for interval 28 February only.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 83000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list