[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 12 issued 2329 UT on 28 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 29 10:29:45 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Region 11423 (N18E03) appears stable while region 11426
(N10W17) has decayed. The ACE Bz IMF component was mostly northward
to 12 nT turning south to about -12 nT from ~0510-0700 UT. Wind
speed decreased from 500 to 450 km/s. Solar wind parameters may
become mildly disturbed late 1 Mar or 2 Mar due to coronal hole
effects. The ~0920 UT eastward CME mentioned in 27 Feb report
is not expected to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Mostly quiet. One
period of unsettled to active conditions 06-09
UT.
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 12422212
Darwin 10 22332322
Townsville 11 22432322
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk_Island 6 12321212
Camden 8 12422212
Canberra 6 12321202
Hobart 8 12421212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie_Island 6 11430101
Casey 21 34------
Mawson 26 33632335
Davis 26 33642344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 19 4312 4352
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Feb 7 Quiet to unsettled
01 Mar 6 Quiet
02 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to active at southern high latitudes with some
major storm levels 06-09 UT. Increase in activity 06-09 UT in
Australian and Antarctic regions corresponds with the southward
IMF ~0510-0700 UT. Forecast unsettled conditions on 2 Mar due
to coronal hole. Effects should be brief due to small longitudinal
extent of the hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Feb Normal Normal Fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional enhancements
to 25% 04-13 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% 00-02,
06-09 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Eastern Australia region mostly depressed to 25% improving after
local dawn. Western Australia region near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Weak ionosphere possibly due to absorption. Depressed mostly
15-30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Feb 80 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
01 Mar 85 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 85 Near predicted monthly values
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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