[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 12 issued 2337 UT on 14 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 15 10:37:49 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last day. All sunspot
regions on the visible Sun are stable. The solar wind speed ranged
between 340-420 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between
+/-5nT prior to 12 UT. After this time the Bz remained largely
southward, reaching around -7nT. Solar activity is expected to
remain Low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 22322223
Darwin 8 22222223
Townsville 9 22322223
Learmonth 11 33222323
Norfolk Island 6 22211222
Camden - --------
Canberra 8 22321223
Hobart 10 22322323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
Macquarie Island 14 12323532
Casey 18 34442224
Mawson 26 54433335
Davis 14 33433223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 1132 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb 5 Quiet
17 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across
Australia with Unsettled to Active levels in Antarctica. Unsettled
conditions are expected to persist into at least the first half
of Feb 15th(UT), before relaxing to Quiet levels for the remainder
of the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 60 About 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values over
the last 24 hours. Some depressed conditions are expected over
the next day due to some mild geomagnetic activity. MUF are expected
to be depressed by up to 20% for southern and central regions
(south of and including Brisbane). IPS HF warning 12/07 has been
issued to alert users of these conditions. Conditions in northern
Australia are expected to remain around predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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