[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 12 issued 2331 UT on 13 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 14 10:31:24 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
no flares of significance. Sunspot regions on the visible disc
are stable or declining. The solar wind speed ranged between
350-450km/s with signatures of a weak coronal hole high speed
stream arriving around 12UT. The IMF Bz component ranged between
+/- 5nT. Solar activity is expected to be a Low levels at most
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 22323432
Darwin 13 23323432
Townsville 12 22323432
Learmonth 16 23323532
Norfolk Island 8 22222322
Camden 5 21------
Canberra 10 22323322
Hobart 10 13323321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
Macquarie Island 16 02235521
Casey 17 34532322
Mawson 14 22333441
Davis 15 23443322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1200 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Unsettled for much of the
day over the Australian region due to a coronal hole high speed
wind stream. A weak sudden impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer
network at 0509UT. An isolated Active period occurred around
15-19UT. Antarctic regions reached Minor Storm levels of activity
at times. Conditions are expected to remain Unsettled with further
active periods expected over the next day due to the tail end
of the coronal hole effects coupled with an expected glancing
blow from a CME observed on the 10th of February. Conditions
may remain Unsettled into the 15th of Feb before returning to
Quiet levels on the 16th.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for
high latitudes for the next 2 days. Mid latitudes may also experience
some mild disruption.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
15 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
16 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values over
the last 24 hours, with significant enhancements seen at Cocos
Island. Some depressed conditions are expected over the next
2 days due to geomagnetic activity. This is expected to depress
the MUFs by up to 20% for southern regions. Central regions may
experience some depressions and northern Australia should be
around predicted monthly values. Current conditions do not yet
show significant depressions. The situation will be monitored
and an IPS HF warning issued if MUFs become significantly degraded
over the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 49700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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