[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 12 issued 2330 UT on 12 Feb 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 13 10:30:08 EST 2012 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Feb             14 Feb             15 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with several 
C-class X-ray flares. These were all produced by sunspot region 
1419(N28E77) which rotated onto the disc during this period. 
No CMEs of significance were observed. The solar wind speed as 
measured by the ACE satellite ranged around 300-340 km/s prior 
to 17UT before increasing to around 380 km/s afterwards. The 
IMF Bz component ranged between +3/-5 nT. Solar activity is expected 
to remain low with some chance of M-class flares over the next 
3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21121112
      Darwin               6   22222212
      Townsville           6   22221222
      Learmonth            6   22122222
      Norfolk Island       2   11010012
      Camden               4   21121112
      Canberra             3   21021101
      Hobart               3   21111111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey                8   33222112
      Mawson              11   42212214
      Davis                7   22222222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            19   (Quiet)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2110 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active
15 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet mostly Quiet across 
Australia and Antarctica with only isolated Unsettled periods 
in Antarctica. Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled 
on the 13th of February due to a coronal hole high speed wind 
stream. A strike from a CME, observed on the 10th of February, 
is expected on the 14th, causing Unsettled to Active conditions 
before reducing to Quiet to Unsettled on the 15th.


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for 
high latitudes for the next 3 days, being worst for the 14th 
on February. Mid latitudes may experience some mild disruption 
on the 14th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Feb    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Feb    85    Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
15 Feb    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values over 
the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly normal for 
13-Feb, with some depressed conditions possible for southern 
Australia later in the UT day. Mild depressions are possible 
on 14-Feb for central and southern Australia. MUFs are expected 
to be around predicted monthly values on the 15th.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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