[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 12 issued 2332 UT on 11 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 12 10:32:18 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C7 flare from region 1417 (N16E44) at 11/1854 and an earlier
C7 flare from the NE limb. Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. The CME observed late on
10-Feb could give Earth a glancing blow around 14-Feb. Over the
last 24 hours, the solar wind speed declined from ~450km/s to
~320km/s. The IMF Bz was mostly neutral. Mild effects from a
coronal hole high speed wind stream are expected on 12-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22212112
Darwin 7 32222112
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 6 32112212
Norfolk Island 3 21101012
Camden 5 22212112
Canberra 3 22102001
Hobart 4 22202111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 11101000
Casey 14 44432112
Mawson 10 32212134
Davis 11 33322223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1011 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours.
Some active periods were observed in Antarctica. Unsettled periods
are likely from 12-Feb in response to coronal hole effects. Some
active periods are possible from late 13-Feb due to the CME observed
late on 10-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
14 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values over
the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly normal for
12-Feb. Mild depressions are possible from 13-Feb, possibly worsening
on 14-Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 92400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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