[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 12 issued 2330 UT on 15 Feb 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 16 10:30:58 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last day. All sunspot
regions on the visible Sun are stable. The solar wind speed ranged
between 380-400 km/s. The IMF Bz component has been predominantly
southward by up tp 9nT for most of the last day. Solar activity
is expected to remain Low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Unsettled with isolated Active
periods
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 14 23333333
Darwin 14 33323333
Townsville 14 23333333
Learmonth 13 23323333
Norfolk Island 12 14323232
Camden - --------
Canberra 13 13333333
Hobart 17 23433433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 42 25555653
Casey 12 33322233
Mawson 61 48333565
Davis 18 34333334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2222 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Feb 5 Quiet
18 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been Unsettled across Australia
over the past day, with isolated Active periods observed in some
locations. Antarctic stations have recorded some Minor Storm
levels of activity, being otherwise Unsettled to Active. Conditions
are expected to relax to Unsettled over the next day before becoming
Quiet on the 17th. From the 18th, Unsettled conditions may return
due to an anticipated coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by up to 20% at times.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 80
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 50 Near predicted values with depressions for southern
regions of around 20%
17 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values over
the last 24 hours with daytime depressions in southern Australian
stations of up to 20%. Significant blanketing E is currently
being observed on east coast stations. Conditions for southern
regions are expected to worsen over the next 24 hours due to
sustained low level geomagnetic activity with depressions of
at most 30% expected. Central and northern regions are expected
to remain around predicted monthly values, with the possibility
of mildly depressed periods for central regions. IPS HF warning
12/09 has been issued to alert users of these conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 62000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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