[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 12 issued 2324 UT on 10 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 11 10:24:29 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Active regions 1629 (N12E06) and 1630 (N19W10) have
been largely stable. An impulsive C5.5 level flare originated
in AR 1630 (N18W01) at 0558UT, with a Type III noise burst observed
on Culgoora Radiospectrograph. Solar wind speed declined slightly
from 340 to 300 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-4nT
with a mild Southward bias over most of the UT day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 21121122
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville 5 22221121
Learmonth 6 22122222
Alice Springs 4 21111112
Norfolk Island 4 11111122
Culgoora 3 11111111
Gnangara 4 22111112
Camden 4 11122121
Canberra 2 11111011
Hobart 4 21221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 11022011
Casey 19 46322122
Mawson 9 43112212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0100 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 5 Quiet
12 Dec 5 Quiet
13 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes. Brief Unsettled to Active intervals were observed
at polar cusp latitudes with Active to Minor Storm intervals
in the polar cap during the first few hours of the UT day. The
observed high latitude activity is probably due to sustained
mild Southward bias in the IMF Bz component over 09-10 Dec. Similar
activity is possible day one of the forecast period if Bz maintains
this condition, but is less likely if solar wind speeds continue
to decline.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Darwin depressed 30% around local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
with isolated periods of strong sporadic-E.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions across the
region next three days. Diurnal variability possible Equatorial/N
Aus regions with minor to moderate depressions possible around
local dawn. Periods of sporadic-E conditions possible local day/evening
S Aus region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 59200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list