[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 12 issued 2321 UT on 09 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 10 10:21:49 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the UT day
Dec 09. There was a C1 level event from AR1630 (N19E03) at 1747UT.
This region has increased slightly in magnetic complexity and
is classified Dsi. Solar wind speed increased slightly to 330
km/s over the first few hours of the UT day and has maintained
that speed for the remainder of the day. The IMF Bz component
showed moderate fluctuations about neutral and has maintained
a moderate Southward bias of -6nT since 10UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 22222223
Darwin 9 32222223
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 8 22222223
Alice Springs 6 22121113
Norfolk Island 3 01111122
Culgoora 6 22112123
Gnangara 8 22222223
Camden 6 22112123
Canberra 5 11112123
Hobart 6 11222222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01002112
Casey 15 35422222
Mawson 15 22123245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 5 Quiet
11 Dec 5 Quiet
12 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind Bz component has maintained a moderate (-6nT)
Southward bias over the second half of the UT day. Geomagnetic
activity has been limited by the relatively slow solar wind speed
(~330km/s). Isolated Unsettled intervals were observed at polar
cap latitudes only. Otherwise the regional geomagnetic field
was Quiet. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Periods of blanketing sporadic-E local evening
and around local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions across the
region next three days. Diurnal variability possible Equatorial/N
Aus regions with minor to moderate depressions possible around
local dawn.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 268 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 16700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list