[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 12 issued 2325 UT on 08 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 9 10:25:35 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flares observed over the UT day
Dec 08. A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1523UT
on 08 Dec, accompanied by an IMF phi component phase reversal.
Otherwise solar wind parameters were nominal. The IMF Bz component
was neutral (+/-2nT).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 4 21111212
Alice Springs 3 21110102
Norfolk Island 1 10000012
Culgoora 1 10110011
Gnangara 3 11111111
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 1 11000001
Hobart 2 11110111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23221111
Mawson 3 10011122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 5 Quiet
10 Dec 5 Quiet
11 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain nominal despite a very
weak solar wind shock passage observed at 1523UT. The regional
geomagnetic field was Quiet at all latitudes. Expect Quiet conditions
next three days. Chance of Unsettled periods day one due to a possible
delayed glancing blow from the CME observed Dec 06.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor high-latitude HF disturbances possible Dec 09.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Normal to enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
10 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions across the
region next three days. Diurnal variability possible Equatorial/N
Aus regions with minor to moderate depressions possible around
local dawn. Minor disturbances possible Antarctic region day
one.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 285 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 26900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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