[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 12 issued 2326 UT on 07 Dec 2012

Sat Dec 8 10:26:29 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec:  97/44

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Dec             09 Dec             10 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Region 1621, now on the west solar limb (N16W91) produced 
a few minor X-ray events over the UT day Dec 07. The only one 
of significance was an impulsive C3.9 level flare at 2120UT. 
A weak Type II radio sweep was observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph 
at this time, with estimated shock speed of 1029 km/s. The flare 
location and intensity suggest it is unlikely to be geoeffective. 
Solar wind speed continues to decline slowly. The IMF Bz component 
was mostly neutral (+/-3nT). Region 1613 (S24) which previously 
produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 7 Dec.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11011011
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           3   11111121
      Learmonth            3   1112111-
      Alice Springs        2   1201101-
      Norfolk Island       1   10000012
      Culgoora             0   00000011
      Gnangara             3   12111111
      Camden               1   01011011
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Hobart               1   11001011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   12212111
      Mawson               2   20012011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 1000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Dec     5    Quiet
10 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain nominal. The regional geomagnetic 
field was Quiet at all latitudes over the UT day Dec 07. Unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions are possible day one or two of the forecast 
period due to an eruptive filament-induced CME observed Dec 06.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor high-latitude HF disturbances possible Dec 08.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Dec    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mildly depressed local day.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20-30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin depressed 15% local day. 
      Townsville depressed 15% after local dawn.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to mildly
      enhanced over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
09 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
10 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions across the 
region next three days. Diurnal variability possible Equatorial/N 
Aus regions with minor to moderate depressions possible around 
local dawn. Minor disturbances possible Antarctic region days 
one and two.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    26900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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