[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 12 issued 2327 UT on 06 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 7 10:27:34 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed over the UT day
Dec 06. A W-directed CME was observed in LASCO imagery after
0330UT. This was associated with a filament eruption in the SW
quadrant. Solar wind speed declined slowly from 350 to 300 km/s.
The Bz component of the IMF was neutral (+/-2nT) over the UT
day. Region 1613 (S24) which previously produced M-flare(s) is
due to return around 7 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 4 21211112
Townsville 4 12111121
Learmonth 3 21111111
Alice Springs 2 21110001
Norfolk Island 2 11000012
Culgoora 0 00000010
Gnangara 3 21111111
Camden 2 11101011
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 9 33331012
Mawson 4 21112012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 1 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 5 Quiet
08 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain nominal. The regional geomagnetic
field was Quiet at all latitudes over the UT day Dec 06. A W-directed
CME in association with a filament eruption observed early in
the UT day Dec 06 may have an Earth-directed component. Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions could result on Dec 07-08.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor high-latitude HF disturbances possible Dec 07-08.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
09 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced
at most stations. Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions
across the region next three days. Minor disturbances possible
Antarctic region days two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 31400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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