[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 12 issued 2325 UT on 05 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 6 10:25:32 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: A C1.7 level X-ray flare was observed at 0028UT on the
E limb at N09. An associated E-directed CME is unlikely to be
geoeffective. The origin of this event is newly numbered active
region 1628, now at N12E68. All other active regions on the visible
disc are stable or declining. Solar wind speed declined slowly
from 400 to 350 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF was neutral
(+/-3nT) over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21110112
Darwin 5 22221112
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 4 21121112
Alice Springs 2 21110002
Norfolk Island 2 20100012
Culgoora 2 10100012
Gnangara 3 11111111
Camden 2 11110012
Canberra 1 10100002
Hobart 2 10110111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 8 32321122
Mawson 7 21110143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1221 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 5 Quiet
07 Dec 5 Quiet
08 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT
day. An isolated Unsettled interval was observed at polar cusp
stations late in the UT day. Expect Quiet conditions next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% around local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values. MUF
depressions observed around local dawn at low to mid latitudes.
Expect similar conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 93300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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