[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 12 issued 2330 UT on 11 Dec 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 12 10:30:49 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the previous 24 hours,
with no significant front-side flare activity. The two numbered
regions on the disk remain largely stable. Region 1618 (N9) which
previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 12 Dec.
Expect Very Low solar activity 12-Dec, with a small chance of
isolated C-class flares. The solar wind speed remains slow (~300km/s
at time of this report), and the IMF is stable, expected to continue
12-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22111122
Darwin 5 22111122
Townsville 4 12111122
Learmonth 6 32112122
Alice Springs 5 32111012
Norfolk Island 2 11000112
Culgoora 2 11100022
Gnangara 4 22111112
Camden 3 21101022
Canberra 1 11100011
Hobart 3 22100112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 12000000
Casey 11 34421112
Mawson 7 23112123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1001 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 5 Quiet
13 Dec 5 Quiet
14 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day with
MUFs near predicted monthly values. Expect mostly normal ionospheric
conditions across the region next three days. Diurnal variability
possible Equatorial/N Aus regions. Periods of sporadic-E conditions
possible local day/evening S Aus region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 47900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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