[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 12 issued 2335 UT on 16 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 17 09:35:42 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, the largest
event being a C3.6 flare from region 1543 (N22W48). This was
accompanied by type II and IV radio sweeps and an associated
CME first observed in STEREO-A imagery at 16/1339. This CME requires
further analysis to determine its likely geoeffectiveness. Low
activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind remained
between 450-500km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz fluctuated between
+/-5nT until around 15UT and has subsequently maintained a southward
bias to -5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled with an
active period
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 22213432
Darwin 10 22223332
Townsville 17 33324433
Learmonth 11 22223432
Norfolk Island 8 22213321
Camden 12 22214432
Canberra 6 11113321
Hobart 12 12214432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
Casey 19 354213--
Mawson 23 5432344-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2012 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Aug 12 Unsettled
19 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet to unsettled over
the last 24 hours, with an active period across much of the Australian
region from 12-18UT. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected
for the next 2 days, with the possibility of active periods and
high-latitude minor storm periods, especially on 17-Aug due to
effects of a 14-Aug CME. Unsettled periods are likely to persist
on 19-Aug due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: For the last 24 hours, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted values, with some night-time depressions at low latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days, with a chance
of high-latitude depressions 17-18 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 75600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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