[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 12 issued 2334 UT on 17 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 18 09:34:55 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 1319UT possible lower European
M1.0 1720UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with several impulsive flares from an unnumbered region on the
northeast limb, including M1 and M2 events. A CME from the same
region is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar activity is
expected to be low to moderate over the next 3 days. The solar
wind speed declined steadily from ~450km/s to ~350km/s. The IMF
Bz maintained a southward bias for most of the UT day, varying
to -4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Darwin 4 22220111
Townsville 9 33221223
Learmonth 5 2222112-
Norfolk Island 5 2222111-
Camden 5 22231011
Canberra 4 22230000
Hobart 6 22331101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
Casey 6 22221113
Mawson 26 64321254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3221 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet to unsettled over
the last 24 hours, with some active and storm level periods in
Antarctica. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions, with active
periods at high latitudes, are expected for the next 3 days due
to CME and coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 17 August
and is current for 18-20 Aug (SWFs). Over the last 24 hours,
MUFs were near monthly predicted values over central and southern
Australia, with depressions observed in northern Australia and
Antarctica. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 475 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 79300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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