[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 12 issued 2329 UT on 15 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 16 09:29:36 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, the largest
event being a C1 flare from region 1542 (S12W40). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Low activity is expected for the next 3 days.
The solar wind remained steady at ~500km/s over the UT day. The
IMF Bz was close to neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 3 21-10112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 32120212
Norfolk Island 3 21111111
Camden 2 10111111
Canberra 1 10110101
Hobart 2 10111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Casey 10 43321112
Mawson 20 42233226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 42 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2222 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 6 Quiet
17 Aug 12 Unsettled
18 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the Australian region
for the last 24 hours, with some unsettled to storm periods in
Antarctica. Expect mostly quiet activity for 16 Aug. Possibility
of active periods and high-latitude minor storm periods on 17-Aug
due to effects of a 14-Aug CME. Unsettled periods are likely
to persist until 18-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal with some night-time
depressions at low latitudes. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days, with a chance of high-latitude depressions
17-18 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 88700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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