[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 12 issued 2348 UT on 12 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 13 09:48:40 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 12 Aug with only B class
flares despite the 7 numbered sunspot groups on the disc. However
regions 1542 and 1543 retain small M flare potential. Two small
slow CMEs from the filament on the western side launched 9Aug
appeared not to have contacted the geomagnetic field. The CME
from AR1540 on 11 Aug associated with an M1 flare should not
be geoeffective as it's speed was a low 400-500km/s and AR1540
was somewhat west of the most geoeffective longitudes. A solar
sector boundary crossing occurred ~13UT and the effect of a coronal
hole high-speed wind stream from CH527, slightly south of the
solar equator, should follow during 13 Aug. The speeds should
remain elevated for 14Aug as the effect of CH528,north of the
solar equator, rotates into geoeffective longitude. Solar wind
speeds were moderate 300-400km/s during 12 Aug. IMF Bz fluctuated
in the +/-5nT range until ~19UT when it turned northward to ~10nT,
shutting off geomagnetic merging.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22212122
Darwin 6 22212122
Townsville 8 23212232
Learmonth 6 22212222
Camden 5 12112122
Canberra 4 12102122
Hobart 4 11102122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 01100011
Casey 7 23211132
Mawson 22 44312263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet at mid latitudes. Isolated
cases of Unsettled at low latitudes, possibly due to ionospheric
currents from equatorial anomaly activity. Occasional Active
and Storm levels near the auroral oval driven by IMF Bz rapid
fluctuations associated with solar sector boundary crossing.
Expect Unsettled geomagnetic activity for 13-Aug with isolated
cases of Active levels at high latitudes. A solar sector boundary
crossing occurred ~13UT and the effect of a coronal hole high-speed
wind stream from CH527, should follow during 13 Aug. The speeds
should remain elevated for 14Aug as the next coronal hole CH528
rotates into geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds were moderate
300-400km/s during 12 Aug. IMF Bz fluctuated in the +/-5nT range,
sometimes rapidly, until ~19UT when it turned northward to ~10nT,
shutting off geomagnetic merging, which may initially blunt the
effect of solar wind speed rise if it continues well into 13
Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal with some depressions at low
latitudes in the north due to continuing equatorial anomaly effects
driven by neutral wind and electric field conditions. Spread
F conditions continue during local nighttime for the most southerly
Australasian region and are likely to continue 13-14 Aug due
to moderate high latitude geomagnetic activity driven by elevated
solar wind speeds from solar coronal holes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 40000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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