[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 12 issued 2337 UT on 11 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 12 09:37:43 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1221UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for 11-Aug due to a M-class/2N
flare from active region 1540 at 1220UT. This may result in a
glancing blow at Earth in approximately three days time. C-class
flares also noted from active regions 1542 and 1544. Expect Low
to Moderate activity for 12-Aug with a chance of a M-class flares
from regions 1540 and 1542. Two small CMEs from the filament
on the western side are predicted to barely glance the Earth
today at the same time a coronal hole high-speed wind stream
becomes geoeffective. The IMF Bz has gone southward over the
last 14 hours (-6nT peak) resulting in weak reconnection. The
solar wind speed is in the normal/low 350-300 km/s range, however
expect moderately elevated levels later in the UT day, 12-Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11001111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 6 12212222
Learmonth 5 31012121
Norfolk Island 0 01000---
Camden 1 00001011
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 1 00001011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 12111121
Mawson 10 00202344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1101 1021
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 12 Unsettled
13 Aug 7 Quiet
14 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet with isolated
cases of Unsettled to Active levels at high latitudes due to
weak reconnection with the IMF. Expect Unsettled geomagnetic
activity for 12-Aug with isolated cases of Active levels at high
latitudes. On 13 Aug expect a return to Quiet levels of geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 77 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 77 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal with some depressions at low
latitudes in the north due to prevailing neutral wind and electric
field conditions in the equatorial anomaly. Expect minor depressions
for 12 August in the Australian/Antarctic regions due to a slight
increase in geomagnetic activity. Spread F conditions continue
during late local nighttime early morning hours for the Hobart
region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 26300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list