[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 12 issued 2330 UT on 13 Aug 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 14 09:30:08 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. C-class
flares were emitted by region 1543, the largest being a C2.8
at 13/1240UT. As associated CME appears to be directed mostly
above the ecliptic and is not expected to be geoeffective, and
neither is an earlier CME from the west limb. Low activity is
expected for the next 3 days, with a small chance of M-class
events. The solar wind speed gradually rose from ~400km/s to
~~500km/s over the UT day and is expected to remain elevated for
14-Aug due to effects from CH528, north of the solar equator.
The IMF Bz remained mostly northward up to 8nT, but for the last
few hours has fluctuated between +/-5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 22232321
Darwin 6 22222221
Townsville 7 22222321
Learmonth 9 22232331
Camden 7 11231322
Canberra 6 11231320
Hobart 7 12231321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
Macquarie Island 8 01241330
Casey 12 34321232
Mawson 23 23322562
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2221 2133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Aug 6 Quiet
16 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled over the
Australian region over the last 24 hours, with isolated active
and storm level periods in Antarctica. Expect quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic activity for 14-Aug with isolated cases of active
levels at high latitudes while coronal hole CH528 remains in
a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal with some depressions at low
latitudes. Spread F conditions continue during local nighttime
for the most southerly Australasian region and are likely to
continue 14-Aug due to moderate high latitude geomagnetic activity
driven by elevated solar wind speeds from solar coronal holes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 61900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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